And so we come to the final phase of the Soviet war in Afghanistan, which I've been running using the rules in Small Wars, a most interesting book that I hope to make more use of in the future - when I have the time. We resume our game in early 1986.
At this stage in the proceedings, overall international opinion on the USSR was becoming more negative. I had been lucky on some of my dice rolls on the diplomacy campaign, but this was now coming unstuck for the Soviets, as more western press began taking an interest in human rights abuses, etc.
Active support by the Americans for the rebel forces has also made life more difficult for the Soviets and their Afghan allies, with heavier losses among the helicopter squadrons a direct result of distribution of Stinger missiles.
A Soviet Su 25 bomber on operations in Afghanistan in 1986 - missile trail in background. I forgot to apply the modifier to force bombers to fly at higher altitudes once the rebels were armed with Stinger missiles. I don't think it would have had a major impact, as the Stingers only arrived in 1985 in my timeframe.
1986: Talks start with Pakistan
The fighting continued around Kandahar. We backed the formation of a pro-communist 'loyal jirga' to found a National Fatherland Front. But we were seeing more desertions from the ranks of the government Afghan brigades, both from the rank and file AND the elite commandoes, which did not look good. The USSR also reached out to Pakistan to start talks with an effort to curb the flow of men and materiel across the border into the mujahideen.
1987: Russians go home!
Fighting broke out in the Herat region, which to date had been quite peaceful. We sent the Spetznaz brigade into the Kandahar area as I was running out of patience with the ongoing rebellion there. The rebels also had another crack at my convoys supplying Soviet troops in the Panjsheer Valley. Later in the year, fighting continued in Kandahar, although Soviet and Afghan forces managed to put down the rebellion in Herat before the end of the year.
By this stage the World Opinion index had reached seven, with 10 leading to the forced withdrawal of Soviet troops. Further negative news coverage of the refugee camps led to a final hike up to 10 and the inevitable withdrawal order came from Moscow.
Another ambush in the high passes, this time with Soviet motorised infantry moving to the Panjsheer Valley in mid-1987. Three mujahideen warbands on the attack. Soviet Hinds flying in support out of Kabul, although I also had them frequently flying routine escort routes for troops on the ground.
The fighting in Kandahar had stopped by this stage, so Afghanistan looked relatively peaceful as Soviet troops pulled out in January-February 1988.
At the end of the campaign, a points table evaluates the relative success of the Soviet occupation. Anything over 20 is not good. I shaved under it with 18, which means it can be regarded as a largely successful outcome for the Russians.
Key to the campaign was keeping at least one Red Army division in Kabul, as this helped to prevent the local Afghan forces from disintegrating. Other forces were deployed according to the level of opposition in a particular region. I tried to avoid over-committing troops to any one battle area, as you can get caught on the hop with unforeseen uprisings elsewhere.
The campaign dynamic is very similar to the earlier French Foreign Legion campaign, but with more bells and whistles. I think it is hard, if not impossible for the rebels to win in terms of forcing the Russians out of Afghanistan militarily. The Soviets are vastly superior in terms of firepower. But they can 'lose' through losing one or two battles, and that is all it would take really. Keeping Kabul was paramount, so I really had to make sure there was no scope for the enemy to 'rush' the capital, as we have seen more recently.
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